Market Analysis
Twenty-Five Billion Dollars of Urgency: Merck’s Keytruda Cliff
Keytruda's 2028 patent expiration puts $25B of annual revenue — 42% of Merck's total — at risk.
What the Framework Reveals
The equipment opportunity behind Merck's most concentrated revenue exposure, 2027–2029
$25B
annual Keytruda revenue at risk, 42% of Merck's total
$11.5B+
already deployed on portfolio replacement (Prometheus, Harpoon, Kelun-Biotech ADC partnership)
1
undisclosed decision (the Kelun call) that determines most of this opportunity's actual size
Keytruda patent expiration in 2028 puts $25B of annual revenue at risk — 42 percent of Merck's total. The company has deployed more than $11.5B on portfolio replacement through Prometheus, Harpoon, and the Kelun-Biotech ADC partnership. That creates a compressed manufacturing window across 2027–2029 — and an opportunity whose size depends almost entirely on one decision Merck hasn't yet announced.
Source: Market Report · Jan 2026 · MKA-38-MA, Executive Summary